MyDD :: Virginia Looks Blue

Virginia Looks Blue

by Josh Orton, Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:07:16 PM EST

A new PPP poll (pdf) shows Obama up two percentage points over McCain in Virginia, 46-44% (7/17-20, 1327LVs, MoE +/- 2.7%). But in the crosstabs, there's an indication Obama's support has more room to grow (via TPM):

The poll has McCain winning white voters by a 53%-36% margin, much narrower than George W. Bush's 68%-32% margin in 2004. Curiously, the poll also has Obama ahead 77%-16% among black voters...

Obama's margin among black voters is creeping up. In PPP's Virginia poll conducted a month ago, Obama led McCain among black voters 67-32%. By the time all is said and done, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see that number top 90%.

Update [2008-7-23 12:22:14 by Josh Orton]: In the comments, fladem points out to CNN's 2004 exit poll of Virginia, which shows that Kerry won the black vote 87 - 12. Can't see Obama doing worse than that.

Tags: Barack Obama, Election 08 (all tags)

Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment

Kerry won the African American (none / 0)

vote by 87 - 12 (and it made up 21% of the total vote.

I will be shocked if Obama doesn't do better.

by fladem on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:12:22 PM EST

Re: Kerry won the African American (none / 0)

Could be argued that Obama will do worse among whites as well, as he did in 2004. Perhaps these balance each other out in this poll. VA is going to be a tight one.

by leshrac55 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kerry won the African American (none / 0)

as "he" did referring to Kerry, of course. =)

by leshrac55 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kerry won the African American (none / 0)

turnout being a key factor.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:39:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It could (none / 0)

according to this poll Obama is outperforming Kerry among whites.

by fladem on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 04:21:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Virginia Looks Blue (none / 0)

Obama's performance among "other" will also improve dramatically from the results in this poll. Plus, the survey had an even number of Dems and Reps, and I suspect that there are now more registered Dems in VA.

by DaveG on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:14:50 PM EST

Re: Virginia Looks Blue (none / 0)

I actually find the numbers suspicious.

I really find it hard to believe he isn't already at 90%! I'm also curious about their turnout model. Factoring in 90% with an astronomical turnout among African Americans, its hard not to imagine Obama's real lead in VA is bigger.

Also, is this yet another poll that does not include Bob Barr? Is he on the ballot there? There was some confusion earlier on the matter.

Anyone know?

by MKyleM on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:25:05 PM EST

Re: Virginia Looks Blue (none / 0)

Lots of pollsters don't like to poll third-party candidates, because they almost never get as much support on election day as they do in polls.

by Angry White Democrat on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:05:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Virginia Looks Blue (none / 0)

I see. In close races, though, 0.5% can make a difference.

by MKyleM on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The problem (none / 0)

is the sample size isn't very big in the subgroups. This poll probably had about 100 African Americans, which would be about +- 10 points.

by fladem on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 04:19:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Virginia Looks Blue (2.00 / 1)

I've noticed that the African-American vote skews funny in most polls (and this was true during the primaries as well). Right now, if one believes the latest polling, Bobb Barr is drawing more support from black voters in places like South Carolina than from white Republicans.

I suspect one of two things is happening. Either the sample size is so small that two or three renegade voters can have a huge impact. Or 20% of black respondents simply lie to pollsters (my suspicion, btw, is that this is what's going on).

African-American voters, also, are just as likely as others to say that they're undecided (that's a function of temperament as much as anything else, there is a sort of person who thinks that so long as he or she can change his or her mind they'll stay on the fence).

by IncognitoErgoSum on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:35:36 PM EST

Virginia blacks voters (none / 0)

It's weird...check out this 2006 exit poll from the Webb-Allen race:

Webb - 85%
Allen - 15%

Very strange...Allen had tons of support from black preachers (and one idiot black State Senator), but it's still odd. The man has used the N-word perhaps 10,000 times in his life.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/r esults/states/VA/S/01/epolls.0.html

by Lance Bryce on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 12:58:21 PM EST

Re: Virginia Looks Blue (none / 0)

I would think Barr Could pull 3-4%.
I know Obama had a powerful ground operation in place for the Primary.

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 01:16:47 PM EST

Re: Virginia Looks Blue (none / 0)

Virginia is Plan B. Plan A is Iowa-New Mexico-Colorado. Plan C is Ohio. All three running concurrently of course.

by conspiracy on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 02:10:46 PM EST

I read Obama will have 20 field offices (none / 0)

in Virginia.

Anyone know how many McCain has or will have?

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."